Methodology & Data
How the machine reads disclosed congressional trading data.
One reference page for the project's sources, methods, current disclosure bundle, committee-risk heuristics, and caveats.
Sources
The primary trading source is Capitol Trades public disclosure data. Returns Spectrum combines the disclosure bundle with end-of-day market price signals. Policy Proximity also uses Congress.gov public-law listings for the 118th and 119th Congresses.
Value ranges and volume
Congressional financial disclosures use reported value ranges, not exact order sizes. The project uses representative disclosed values for visual weight and ranking. Capital Flow separates scale from direction: gross disclosed volume sums buys and sells, while net flow treats buys as positive and sells as negative.
| Input | How it is used | Caveat |
|---|---|---|
| Disclosed value ranges | Representative values drive visual weight and summary tables. | Not exact transaction accounting. |
| Gross disclosed volume | Shows total public trading scale across buys and sells. | Not profit, performance, or intent. |
| Net cumulative flow | Buys are positive and sells are negative. | Directional visualization only. |
disclosed value; gross volume sums buys and sells; net flow uses buys positive and sells negative
Timing and sector heuristics
Committee exposure and Policy Proximity are triage heuristics. They are designed to help readers inspect patterns, not to make claims about motive or inside information.
- Committee-sector exposure compares a member's committee context with sectors represented in disclosed trades.
- Policy Proximity links public-law events to trades by date proximity and sector proximity.
- Returns Spectrum compares disclosed trades with trailing market movement for visualization context only.
- Reporting dates can lag transaction dates, and some disclosures include spouse, dependent, or joint transactions.
Caveats
Congressional financial disclosures are incomplete as a market dataset. Some transaction types are excluded from buy/sell flow, reported values are ranges, and disclosure timing can vary. The current bundle skipped exchange and received transaction types for flow math because they are not clean buy/sell signals.
| Known limitation | Current handling |
|---|---|
| Value ranges | Use representative values for visualization. |
| Exchange / received rows | Excluded from buy/sell flow when not directionally comparable. |
| Anomalous dates | 2 rows skipped in the current flow bundle. |
| Timing links | Presented as proximity heuristics only. |
Data
Current disclosure bundle
A crawlable summary of the public data currently bundled into the interactive scenes, generated on 2026-11-02.
Capitol Trades public 3-year volume total, read 2026-06-14
Dataset windows and sources
| Bundle | Window | Rows / events |
|---|---|---|
| Trading disclosures | 2023-06-30 to 2026-10-28 | 34,800 disclosures from 348 source pages |
| Buy/sell flow | 2023-06-30 to 2026-10-28 | 34,662 directionally comparable rows |
| Returns Spectrum | 2023-07-05 to 2026-08-05 | 5,621 rows from 34,800 source disclosures |
| Policy Proximity | 2024-07-09 to 2025-08-19 | 31 public-law events linked to 372 trades |
| Source | Use |
|---|---|
| CAPITOL TRADES | Public congressional trading disclosures and disclosed volume. |
| CAPITOL TRADES + EOD PRICES | Returns Spectrum rows and trailing market movement context. |
| Congress.gov public laws + Capitol Trades committee-risk scrape | Policy Proximity event spine and sector/date proximity links. |
| Congress.gov public laws | https://www.congress.gov/public-laws/118th-congress |
| Congress.gov public laws | https://www.congress.gov/public-laws/119th-congress |
Data use notes
This dataset describes an editorial visualization bundle derived from public disclosure sources. Original source records remain subject to their publishers' terms. Reuse should cite Capitol Alpha Machine and the underlying public sources, preserve the caveats about disclosure ranges and timing heuristics, and avoid presenting representative values as exact holdings, profit, intent, or evidence of wrongdoing.
Top tickers and members in the returns bundle
| Ticker | Rows | Representative disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 137 | $154.8M |
| AAPL | 90 | $53.5M |
| JPM | 63 | $46.7M |
| NVDA | 113 | $32.7M |
| BMO | 21 | $17.8M |
| WMB | 4 | $15.5M |
| PRU | 5 | $15.1M |
| PUK | 1 | $15.0M |
| Member | Rows | Representative disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Mccaul | 1,483 | $172.7M |
| Joshua Gottheimer | 177 | $144.4M |
| Nancy Pelosi | 39 | $96.3M |
| Jefferson Shreve | 301 | $81.1M |
| Rohit Khanna | 1,485 | $51.4M |
| Cleo Fields | 168 | $21.9M |
| Kevin Hern | 58 | $17.5M |
| Alan Armstrong | 40 | $17.4M |
These rankings use representative disclosed values inside the returns scene bundle. They are not a complete accounting of holdings, profit, or intent.
Committee Risk
Committee-risk proximity dataset
This aggregate links public-law events to disclosed trade rows using date proximity and sector proximity. Committee-sector overlap is a heuristic flag, not a claim of causation.
Top committees in the current aggregate
| Committee | Rows | Representative value | Members | Avg risk | Avg timing | Top sectors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligence | 34 | $33.2M | 2 | 84 | 91 | information-technology, industrials, communication-services |
| Ways & Means | 4 | $4.1M | 1 | 77 | 82 | financials |
| Commerce, Science & Transportation | 13 | $3.5M | 2 | 85 | 92 | communication-services, consumer-discretionary |
| Homeland Security | 32 | $2.1M | 5 | 83 | 89 | information-technology, communication-services, industrials |
| Armed Services | 74 | $1.3M | 4 | 88 | 90 | industrials, information-technology, communication-services |
| Environment & Public Works | 13 | $378K | 5 | 72 | 75 | energy, utilities |
| Appropriations | 39 | $361K | 8 | 87 | 86 | energy, health-care, information-technology |
| Financial Services | 38 | $304K | 3 | 85 | 91 | financials |
| Natural Resources | 37 | $296K | 1 | 79 | 77 | health-care, materials, energy |
| Budget | 30 | $240K | 1 | 88 | 95 | financials |
Rows are aggregate only. Individual committee pages are not generated.
Risk flags
| Flag | Rows |
|---|---|
| committee sector overlap | 351 |
| repeat committee sector trades 90d | 326 |
| owner spouse | 198 |
| reporting gap 180d plus | 103 |
| owner joint | 79 |
| top 10pct value | 46 |
| reporting gap 45d plus | 46 |
| top 25pct value | 42 |
Flags describe why a row became visually prominent inside Policy Proximity. Read them as triage labels for inspection, not conclusions.